In a tournament, chips win prizes rather than money directly. Because the prize pool is divided into tiers, each chip added to a stack is worth slightly less than the one before it, and each chip lost costs more than it appeared to.
The independent chip model, usually shortened to ICM, is the standard way of putting a money value on a stack. It is an approximation, but it explains the one situation every tournament player meets: a call that is correct in chips and wrong in money.
Why Chips Are Not Money
Doubling a stack does not double the expected prize. The extra chips increase the chance of finishing high, but the first prize is capped, while losing the stack removes every remaining payout at once.
| Situation | Chip effect | Money effect |
|---|---|---|
| Doubling a short stack on the bubble | Twice the chips | Far more than twice the equity, since survival is secured |
| Doubling a big stack on the bubble | Twice the chips | Only modestly more equity; the extra chips add little |
| Losing a coin flip as a medium stack | All chips gone | The whole remaining payout forfeited |
| Folding into a pay jump | No chips gained | Real money gained, for no risk |
The Bubble
The bubble is the point at which the next elimination begins the payouts. It produces the largest distortion in the whole tournament.
- Big stacks gain the most: they can apply pressure that medium stacks cannot profitably answer.
- Medium stacks lose the most freedom, since busting before the money costs the entire entry.
- Short stacks are often freer than medium stacks, because they have less equity to protect.
- Calling ranges tighten more than raising ranges, which is why stealing becomes so profitable.
The same pressure returns at every significant pay jump, and most strongly at the final table where the gaps between places are largest.
Using It Without Software
- Look at the payout list firstKnow what the next jump is worth before the decision arrives.
- Compare stacks, not cardsWho can bust you, and whom can you bust, decides more than your hand.
- Widen raises, tighten callsPressure is cheap when opponents cannot call; calling is expensive when busting ends the entry.
- Respect the clockICM caution has a cost: blinds keep rising, and a stack folded away is also a stack lost.
Bounty and Satellite Events
- In bounty events, part of the prize is collected by eliminating players, which pushes calling ranges wider than plain ICM suggests.
- In satellites, every qualifying place pays the same, so chips above the amount needed to qualify are nearly worthless. Folding becomes correct in spots that would be automatic calls elsewhere.
- In a progressive knockout, half of each bounty is kept and half added to your own, so bounties compound on larger stacks.
The formats page sets out the mechanics of each of these.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does ICM mean I should always fold on the bubble?
No. It means close calls become folds while raises become cheaper. The shortest stack at the table often has the least to protect and can play more freely than a medium stack.
Does ICM apply in cash games?
No. Cash chips convert directly to money, so there are no pay jumps to protect and no diminishing value per chip.
How exact is the model?
It is an approximation that ignores skill, position and the blind clock. It is accurate enough to show the direction of an adjustment, not precise enough to settle every marginal decision.