Every figure on this page is a count of combinations rather than an estimate. A 52-card deck produces a fixed number of possible deals, and the share matching any description is a matter of arithmetic.
The numbers assume no knowledge of other players' cards. At a full table some of the cards needed to complete a draw are already dealt, which is why these figures describe the long run rather than any single hand.
Five-Card Hand Frequencies
These are the counts that fix the ranking order: a hand beats another because it occurs less often in a five-card deal.
Frequencies are the share of all 2,598,960 possible five-card hands drawn from a single 52-card deck.
Hold'em Situations
| Situation | Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Being dealt any pocket pair | 5.9% | Roughly one deal in seventeen. |
| Being dealt a specific pocket pair | 0.45% | Six combinations out of 1,326 starting hands. |
| Being dealt ace-king, suited or not | 1.2% | Sixteen combinations out of 1,326. |
| Being dealt two suited cards | 23.5% | Suitedness alone adds only a few percentage points of equity. |
| Flopping a set holding a pocket pair | 11.8% | Counting flops that give three of a kind or better. |
| Flopping a flush draw with two suited cards | 10.9% | Exactly two more cards of the suit on the flop. |
| Completing a flush draw from flop to river | 35.0% | Nine outs with two cards to come. |
| Completing a flush draw from turn to river | 19.6% | Nine outs with one card to come. |
| Completing an open-ended straight draw by the river | 31.5% | Eight outs with two cards to come. |
| Completing a gutshot straight draw by the river | 16.5% | Four outs with two cards to come. |
| The flop coming rainbow (three suits) | 39.8% | Useful when judging how often flush draws appear. |
| The flop containing a pair | 16.9% | Paired boards change how often full houses are possible. |
The draw figures assume every out is live. Discount them whenever a card that completes your hand also completes a better one for someone else — the reasoning is on the pot odds page.
Counting Outs
| Outs | Turn only | River only | Turn and river |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% |
| 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| 6 | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| 8 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| 12 | 25.5% | 26.1% | 45.0% |
| 15 | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% |
| 21 | 44.7% | 45.7% | 69.9% |
Flop Textures
| Flop | Frequency | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Three different suits (rainbow) | 39.8% | No flush draw is possible on the flop. |
| Two of one suit | 55.0% | Flush draws are live; bet sizing changes. |
| All three of one suit (monotone) | 5.2% | Made flushes are possible immediately. |
| Contains a pair | 16.9% | Full houses and trips become available. |
| Three of a kind | 0.24% | Rare enough that most ranges miss entirely. |
| Three connected ranks | 3.5% | Straights possible at once; check frequencies rise. |
Pre-Flop Match-Ups
Approximate equities for the confrontations that occur most often, rounded to the nearest percentage point.
| Match-up | Equity | Known as |
|---|---|---|
| Pair against two lower cards | About 80% to 20% | A clear favourite |
| Pair against two overcards | About 55% to 45% | A coin flip, or race |
| Pair against a lower pair | About 81% to 19% | Dominated |
| Ace-king against a lower pair | About 46% to 54% | A race with an overcard advantage |
| Two overcards against one dominated card | About 70% to 30% | Domination |
| Suited cards against the same cards offsuit | Two to four points better | The value of suitedness |
Exact figures shift with the specific cards, because shared ranks and suits remove outs from both hands. Treat them as the shape of the situation rather than as precise values.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does a pocket pair flop a set?
11.8% of the time, counting flops that give three of a kind or better. That is roughly one flop in eight, which is why small pairs need a cheap entry and good implied odds.
How often do two suited cards make a flush?
They flop a flush draw about 10.9% of the time and complete it about 35% of those, so a flush by the river arrives in roughly four per cent of hands dealt suited.
Do these figures change in Omaha or short-deck?
Yes, substantially. Omaha deals four cards, and short-deck uses 36. Any chart written for 52 cards and two hole cards gives the wrong answer in both.